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Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in the national average for the first time since the vice president became the Democratic Party’s 2024 nominee, according to a polling aggregator.
RealClearPolitics has Trump ahead of Harris in the 2024 race by 0.1 points, with the Republican at 48.4 percent and the Democrat at 48.3 percent, as of October 26. The last time the former president led in RealClearPolitics’ average was August 4, one day before Harris formally secured the Democratic presidential nomination.
This shift is an indication that the race between Trump and Harris is tightening as the election approaches. The eight most-recent surveys compiled by RealClearPolitics show that Trump leads in two surveys; Harris is ahead in two; and the pair are tied in the remaining four.
Newsweek has contacted the campaign teams of both Trump and Harris for comment via email.
RealClearPolitics also shows Trump ahead of Harris on average in all seven key battleground states: Arizona (plus 1.5 points), Georgia (plus 2.3), Michigan (0.2), Nevada (0.7), North Carolina (0.8), Pennsylvania (0.5), and Wisconsin (0.2).
Trump is forecast to win the popular vote and the Electoral College count with 312 electoral votes barring any shock results elsewhere, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling calculations.
Other forecasters show Harris with a national average lead over Trump but suggest that Trump is the slight favorite to win the election through the Electoral College count.
Harris leads at 538’s national average by 1.4 points (48.1 percent to 46.7 percent). The polling aggregator said Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning the race this November, but it remains essentially a toss-up, added 538.
“The closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close,” wrote 538’s G. Elliott Morris. “All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently ‘losing’ in each.”
A Wall Street Journal poll of 1,500 registered voters showed Trump ahead of Harris by 47 percent to 45 percent in a full candidate survey that also included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2 percent. This poll was conducted from October 19 to 22, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The final New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign had Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent in a head-to-head race. This survey consisted of 2,516 likely voters nationwide and was conducted from October 20 to 23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
The final nationwide CNN/SSRS poll also had Trump and Harris tied at 47 percent among likely voters in a full ballot. This CNN poll was conducted from October 20 to 23 among a random national sample of 1,704 registered voters. The results among all likely voters have a margin of sampling error of 3.1 percentage points.
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill has Harris ahead of Trump by 0.6 points on average (48.6 percent to 48 percent).
The site says Trump has a 53 percent chance of winning next week’s election but adds that the seven key swing states are still too close to call and could go either way on November 5.